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Phil
Lempert
Food Trends Editor
NBC
Today Show
For close to a year, low-carb diets, led by Atkins
and South Beach, have become the number one diet type of choice.
In fact, according to ACNielsen, at least one person in 17.2%
of American households is currently on a low-carb diet. While
much discussion has ensued about the nutritional benefits
(and drawbacks) to this type of diet, little has been written
about the actual cost of maintaining such a diet plan.
Conventional wisdom suggests that going on a diet means you
would eat less and therefore the cost of your food would be
less as well; but the truth is that adhering to either Atkins
or South Beach meal plans, as detailed in their books, is
way more expensive than the typical family currently eats.
This brings up the question of whether or not the folks that
need to lose those extra pounds can actually afford to do
so.
The average one-person household spends approximately $59
a week on their groceries according to the Food Marketing
Institute’s 2004 trends report. We wanted to calculate
just how much the two leading low-carb diets would cost, so
we broke down each recipe and meal plan (for one person) and
found that strictly following the portion size and ingredients
in a weeklong program on Atkins totaled $99.89 and on South
Beach $91.28—almost double the norm.
Analyzing obesity rates, according to the National Health
Interview Study, reveals some shocking differences in the
rates of our most correctable health dilemma: 26% of those
whose income is less than $17,000 are obese compared to 18%
of those individuals making over $67,000 per year. Obesity
is defined as 30 pounds or more overweight.
Sugar, fat and grains are our cheapest foods, and those are
exactly the food types that these low-carb diets want us to
eliminate or reduce significantly. In fact, the new recommendations
from the Institutes of Medicine last December reinforce this
thinking, as they dropped the current Recommended Daily Allowance
(RDA) for carbohydrates from 300 grams a day to 130 grams
a day, less than half. Protein—in particular fish, chicken
and meat—cost more than pasta and rice. So what can
an average person, who still wants to keep close to their
budget of $59 a week, do?
As Americans seek a “nutritional correction,”
they are starting to take matters into their own hands. In
fact, according to the October/November Panel Views 2003 Dietary
Awareness Survey conducted by ACNielsen Homescan, 28.9 percent
of respondents who say they are on a diet follow a “diet
of own design.”
To start, shoppers are being more proactive as they shop the
aisles. They are reading labels and look for those hidden
carbs in products you may not expect. Sugars, like high fructose
corn syrup, have been added to some ketchup, pasta sauces,
salad dressings and other sauces. And they are finally reading
the Nutritional Facts label and choosing those products that
have little or no carbohydrates.
They are using the Atkins and South Beach diet plans as a
guide, but replacing the salmon and other more expensive fishes
with a chicken breast or tofu. We expect to also see a move
toward buying frozen fish, rather than fresh (since most fresh
fish has been previously frozen anyway, most shoppers are
in for a pleasant surprise) as well as frozen ground beef.
There is little difference in choosing these items over their
fresh counterparts. When properly frozen and maintained at
the correct temperature, there is no nutritional or taste
difference, but they are realizing a substantial price savings.
The same holds true for expensive fruits, like blueberries,
strawberries and raspberries, which are heavily promoted on
the pages of these low-carb diet plans. A half pint of fresh
blueberries sells these days for close to $5, while their
frozen counterpart sells for less than half of that price
for 16 ounces.
The bottom line is that America is fat, and it appears that
the phenomenon of “low-carb” has been the impetus
for retailers, brands and consumers to finally do something
about it. And shoppers are taking more responsibility for
their diets and the prices they are willing to pay for these
types of foods.
The question is this: “What happens next?” This
summer, we will finally see the approved low-carb regulations
out of Washington. Indications are that “low-carb”
will be defined at nine grams of carbs or less per serving
size, with no approved use of the “net” or “impact”
carb claims. When this happens, we can only suspect that many
consumers will be shocked to read that some of the products
that touted a low net carb count on the package front actually
contain five or six times as many total carbs.
Many branded products have already begun to reformulate by
taking out carbs, fat, sugars and sodium in their everyday
offerings and at everyday pricing. Kellogg’s new lower-sugar
Frosted Flakes and Froot Loops are perfect examples, as is
the Sara Lee Delightfuls line of lower-carb breads. Expect
more of the major companies to follow the trend, and the shopper
to win the fat fight as our foods make their “nutritional
corrections.”
Philip Lempert has gained wide acclaim for his marketing
savvy and broad experience in the food industry. A distinguished
speaker, exclusively represented by the Washington Speakers
Bureau, he has addressed over 600,000 people over the past
ten years, and is the expert on new marketing trends and products
in the food industry. The “Supermarket Guru®,”
Lempert is a respected analyst with an uncanny ability to
identify and explain trends to both industry and consumers
in a thought provoking and entertaining manner.
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